Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
