Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
